Markets/Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$273

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

3% / 6%

Spread

2.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.8pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%

½ Kelly4.5%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $273 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1089014

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