Markets/Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

11% / 16%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-16.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

13% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -6.5pp

23% → 16%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

13% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676817