Markets/Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:39 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$14

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

13% / 18%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

31% YES

Mar 6, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 12, 2026

Biggest move: -6.0pp

31% → 25%

Mar 6, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/801932