Markets/Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

2% / 7%

Spread

5.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Feb 24, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 5.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677142