Markets/Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$34

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

14% / 21%

Spread

7.00pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+7.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Biggest move: +14.0pp

24% → 38%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

38% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

33% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 83¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677139