Markets/Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$612

Bid / Ask

17% / 28%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-33.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

17%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -33.0pp

50% → 17%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

17% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 78¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677143