Markets/Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

52%YES

48%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$653

Bid / Ask

49% / 55%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+15.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

72% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

61% YES — lowest in period

Feb 23, 2026

Biggest move: -13.5pp

74% → 61%

Feb 23, 2026

Peak probability

95% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

87% YES (+6.0pp recent)

Mar 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 52%99%

Buy YES@ 52¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 48¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677145