Markets/Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

58%YES

42%NO

Volume 24h

$778

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

52% / 63%

Spread

10.30pp

Expert Signal

58%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

74% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

55% YES — lowest in period

Feb 24, 2026

Biggest move: -31.6pp

89% → 58%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

95% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

60% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 58%99%

Buy YES@ 58¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 42¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?" at 58% YES / 42% NO. In the last 24 hours, $778 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 58%. The bid-ask spread is 10.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 58%, NO 42%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677146