Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?
Closes July 16, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$1K
Bid / Ask
30% / 46%
Spread
16.00pp
Expert Signal
37%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 16.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1972628
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Bank of Korea increase the base rate after th: 49%, Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after th: 37%, Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate: 25%.
Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Mee
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
47% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Trough probability
14% YES — lowest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -29.0pp
50% → 21%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
29% YES (-9.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this