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Markets/Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
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Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

95%YES
5%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

95% / 95%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

95%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819219

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+9.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

86% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +9.0pp

86% → 95%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

97% YES — highest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Current

95% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 95%99%
Buy YES@ 95¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 5¢
Edge

+4.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO—+4.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this