Markets/Will the Democratic Party win the LA-01 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the LA-01 House seat?

Market Price

11%YES

89%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$796

Liquidity$28K

Bid / Ask10% / 11%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.1pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets25 markets

25 deadline markets. Combined YES = 974% — 874pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the IL-15 House seat

94%

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat

91%

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the LA-01 House seat

11%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

11%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the LA-01 House seat?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $796 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will the Democratic Party win the LA-01 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283593