Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:05 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

59%YES

41%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

52% / 64%

Spread

11.60pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

41% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Current

41% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 59%99%

Buy YES@ 59¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 41¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 11.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1378925

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