ForecastMind
Markets/Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?
Share on X

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$539

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

10% / 11%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $539 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690203

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢
Edge

+4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this