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Markets/Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:26 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

38%YES

63%NO

Volume 24h

$36K

Liquidity

$308K

Bid / Ask

37% / 38%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

April

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

38%

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-20.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

32% YES — lowest in period

Mar 12, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: -7.5pp

62% → 55%

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

64% YES — highest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Current

38% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 38%99%

Buy YES@ 38¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 63¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/663583

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

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