Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$70K
Liquidity
$279K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $70K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1707932
This event has 4 active outcome markets. the Iranian: 27%, June 30: 14%, May 31: 7%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~50%.
Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Apr 3, 2026
Current
7% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this