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Markets/Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
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Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
89%FIS
−1ppvs market 90%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.8pp below current market price; market at 90% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]
-1.0pp
MacroVIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.8% ↑
-0.6pp
Live compute04:35 AM

Polymarket Price

90%YES
11%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$39K

Bid / Ask

89% / 90%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

90%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?" at 90% YES / 10% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 90%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 90%, NO 10%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1178057

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket90%anchor
Manifold——

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 90%99%
Buy YES@ 90¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO@ 10¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this