Markets/Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

$23K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

16% / 17%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Trough probability

25% YES — lowest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Biggest move: -8.0pp

37% → 29%

Mar 14, 2026

Current

27% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 15, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

Edge

+3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 84¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1468051