Markets/Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?

Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

Vol 24h$12K

Liquidity$127K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesOct 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets29 markets

29 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

the Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series

30%

the New York Yankees

New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series

the Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on October 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1235565