Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5?
Closed April 5, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH -0.4% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$459K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $459K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777597
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
32% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 5, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 1, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
43%
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -25.0pp
59% → 34%
Apr 2, 2026
Peak probability
65% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this