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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

31%YES
70%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

30% / 32%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

31%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+14.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: +8.5pp

14% → 23%

Mar 29, 2026

Current

28% YES (+3.5pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 31%99%
Buy YES@ 31¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 70¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705591