Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26?

Market Price

43%YES

57%NO

FM Estimate

41%

Vol 24h$18K

Liquidity$23K

Bid / Ask44% / 45%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

Macro fundamentals-1.8pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets38 markets

38 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1834% — 1734pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26

43%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-5.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2023804