Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?

Market Price

27%YES

73%NO

FM Estimate

21%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

6.0pp

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$27K

Bid / Ask27% / 28%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 29, 2026

Macro fundamentals-6.0pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets34 markets

34 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1748% — 1648pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29

27%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-2.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2053407