Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?

Market Price

20%YES

80%NO

FM Estimate

15%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

4.1pp

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$30K

Bid / Ask18% / 20%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesApr 30, 2026

Macro fundamentals-4.1pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets19 markets

19 deadline markets. Combined YES = 814% — 714pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30

99%

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30

20%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+3.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2060958