Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25?

Market Price

3%YES

97%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$27K

Bid / Ask3% / 3%

Spread0.70pp

ClosesApr 25, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.9pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets23 markets

23 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1252% — 1152pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 25

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price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25

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price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-10.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70pp. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2015117