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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$28K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+48.1pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and…

March

Full event →

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-25.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly25.9%
½ Kelly13.0%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 25.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628562