Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:26 PM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

36% / 37%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?

March

Full event →

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?

56%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?

35%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 22?

$78,000 March 16-22?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?

$80,000 March 16-22?

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 22?

above $78,000 on March 23?

above $80,000 on March 23?

between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 22?

$78,000 on March 21?

between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22?

greater than $80,000 on March 22?

above $78,000 on March 21?

above $80,000 on March 21?

17 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

7% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -15.5pp

40% → 24%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

41% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

36% YES (+10.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 37%99%

Buy YES@ 37¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 64¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598696