Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES

73%NO

Volume 24h

$23K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

27% / 29%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and…

March

Full event →

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 24?

45%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?

28%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 24?

21%

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 24?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 24?

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

31% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Trough probability

22% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: -8.5pp

31% → 22%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

27% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 28%99%

Buy YES@ 28¢

Edge

+1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 73¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628566

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Venue Divergence

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