ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?

Closes April 8, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
32%FIS
+1ppvs market 31%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 31% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.6% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.6% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑
+0.9pp
Live compute04:18 AM

Polymarket Price

31%YES
69%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

30% / 32%

Spread

2.20pp

Expert Signal

31%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.9pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1817345

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 57%, price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 31%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 11%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+16.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +19.6pp

11% → 30%

Apr 7, 2026

Peak probability

39% YES — highest in period

Apr 8, 2026

Current

25% YES (-5.9pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 31%99%
Buy YES@ 31¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 69¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this