Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:25 PM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$20K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?

March

Full event →

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?

59%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?

36%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 22?

above $78,000 on March 23?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 22?

$78,000 March 16-22?

$80,000 March 16-22?

above $80,000 on March 23?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 22?

between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22?

$78,000 on March 21?

between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22?

greater than $80,000 on March 22?

15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-10.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: -12.5pp

24% → 12%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

24% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

6% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598702