Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 24?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 24?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:37 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

22% / 24%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and…

March

Full event →

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 24?

45%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?

25%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 24?

23%

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 24?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 24?

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

19% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +6.5pp

19% → 26%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

26% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

23% YES (+4.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 23%99%

Buy YES@ 23¢

Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 24?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628570

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Venue Divergence

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