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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 10?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 10?

Closes April 10, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
5%FIS
+1ppvs market 4%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 3% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.2% ↑, ETH -0.1% ↓, S&P +0.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.2% ↑, ETH -0.1% ↓, S&P +0.8% ↑
+1.0pp
Live compute04:03 AM

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 10?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846027

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,0: 3%, price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on A: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~96%.

price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on Apri

3%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Current

4% YES (-1.3pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%
½ Kelly6.5%
Buy NO+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this