Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 26?
Closes March 26, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
1.40pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and…
March
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.6pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-16.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 26?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1652016
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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