Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 14?
Closes April 14, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +3.2pp above current market price; market at 16% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.9% ↑, ETH +0.9% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$34K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
17% / 19%
Spread
2.30pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 14?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1908688
This event has 2 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,0: 16%, price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on A: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~84%.
price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on Apri
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: -21.5pp
26% → 5%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this