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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14?

Closes April 14, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$51K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

0% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $51K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1908690

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,0: 6%, price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on A: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~94%.

price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on Apri
6%

price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14?

1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +5.7pp

2% → 8%

Apr 8, 2026

Peak probability

8% YES — highest in period

Apr 8, 2026

Current

0% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this