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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

74%YES
26%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

73% / 75%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

79%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+6.7pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 31?

March

Full event →
above $1,600 on March 31?
100%
above $1,700 on March 31?
100%
above $1,900 on March 31?
98%
above $2,000 on March 31?
74%
above $2,100 on March 31?
14%
above $2,200 on March 31?
1%
above $2,300 on March 31?
0%
above $2,600 on March 31?
0%
above $2,500 on March 31?
0%

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

65% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: +9.0pp

66% → 75%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

75% YES (+9.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 74%99%
Buy YES@ 74¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 26¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?" at 74% YES / 26% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 74%, NO 26%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705517

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.