Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES

73%NO

Volume 24h

$20K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

27% / 29%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-18.5pp

confidence40%

methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →

above $1,800 on March 23?

99%

above $1,900 on March 23?

96%

above $2,000 on March 23?

80%

above $2,100 on March 23?

28%

above $2,200 on March 23?

above $2,300 on March 23?

above $2,400 on March 23?

above $2,800 on March 23?

above $2,500 on March 23?

above $2,700 on March 23?

above $2,600 on March 23?

11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

30% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Trough probability

23% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +7.5pp

23% → 31%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

31% YES (+7.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 28%99%

Buy YES@ 28¢

Edge

+1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 73¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607591

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