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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 31?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
86%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

13% / 15%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-34.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 31?

March

Full event →
above $1,600 on March 31?
100%
above $1,700 on March 31?
100%
above $1,900 on March 31?
98%
above $2,000 on March 31?
74%
above $2,100 on March 31?
14%
above $2,200 on March 31?
1%
above $2,300 on March 31?
0%
above $2,600 on March 31?
0%
above $2,500 on March 31?
0%

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: +5.0pp

11% → 16%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

16% YES (+5.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%
½ Kelly1.7%
Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 31?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705521

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.