Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.1pp above current market price; market at 38% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.2% ↑, ETH +1.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$24K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
36% / 38%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
33%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879341
This event has 11 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 12: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 12: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 12: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: -7.5pp
56% → 48%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
47% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this