Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25?

Market Price

75%YES

25%NO

FM Estimate

73%

Vol 24h$8K

Liquidity$22K

Bid / Ask76% / 78%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesApr 25, 2026

Macro fundamentals-1.1pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets10 markets

10 deadline markets. Combined YES = 377% — 277pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 25

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25

75%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+6.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2015055