Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27?

Market Price

28%YES

72%NO

FM Estimate

33%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

4.4pp

Vol 24h$40K

Liquidity$22K

Bid / Ask29% / 30%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 27, 2026

Macro fundamentals+4.4pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 616% — 516pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27

100%

price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27

28%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+9.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2034463