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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 9?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 9?

Closes April 9, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
15%FIS
+7ppvs market 8%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +6.8pp above current market price; market at 8% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +3.6% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +3.6% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑
+6.8pp
Live compute02:55 AM

Polymarket Price

8%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

6% / 8%

Spread

2.10pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-61.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 9?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 2.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831399

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +5.8pp

5% → 11%

Apr 8, 2026

Peak probability

11% YES — highest in period

Apr 8, 2026

Current

8% YES (-0.7pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 8%99%
Buy YES@ 8¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%
½ Kelly1.5%
Buy NO+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this