Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 5?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$354K

ClosedMay 5, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30

price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on Ma

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price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,70

price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on Ma

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price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,20

price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on Ma

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 5?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2107039