Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 28?

Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 28?

Market Price

50%YES

50%NO

Vol 24h$11K

Liquidity$7

ClosesApr 28, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on A

price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 28

50%

price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,80

price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on Ap

50%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+49.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 28?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 28?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2044475