Markets/Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$44K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJun 3, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

the Democratic Party of Korea (DP)

Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Ko

99%

the People Power Party (PPP)

People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean l

the Progressive Party (PP)

Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean loc

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on June 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/703989