Markets/Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

24%YES

77%NO

Volume 24h

$32

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

22% YES

Mar 13, 2026

Biggest move: +8.0pp

23% → 31%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

31% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

25% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 24%99%

Buy YES@ 24¢

Edge

+2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 77¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943819