Markets/Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$48

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

10% / 12%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Current

10% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943823