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Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Market Price

2%YES
98%NO

FM Estimate

1.6%
Vol 24h$813
Liquidity$16K
Bid / Ask2% / 2%
Spread0.20pp
Why this matters

Prediction markets price this at 2% YES (98% NO) — the market leans against this outcome. Related markets: Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 at 48%, Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 at 52%, Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican p at 2%.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 104% — 4pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seat

Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after

26%
Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats

Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after

18%

Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats

Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after

2%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $813 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943828