Markets/Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?

Market Price

13%YES

87%NO

FM Estimate

53%

Vol 24h$20

Liquidity$14K

Bid / Ask12% / 13%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets17 markets

17 deadline markets. Combined YES = 530% — 430pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat

95%

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat

85%

the Republican Party

Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat

13%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1280800