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Markets/Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
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Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES
72%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

27% / 29%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819222

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

34% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: -5.5pp

34% → 28%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

28% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 28%99%
Buy YES@ 28¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 72¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this