Markets/Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

56%YES

45%NO

Volume 24h

$67K

Liquidity

$80K

Bid / Ask

56% / 57%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

56%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Current

45% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 15, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 56%99%

Buy YES@ 56¢

Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.6%

Buy NO@ 44¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $67K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665374